Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.149542 0.176948 0.209109 0.249940 0.300826 0.362720 4.445646e-01
2025-08-10 0.111183 0.142845 0.183989 0.242372 0.324738 0.439379 6.157717e-01
2025-08-17 0.083786 0.115033 0.159183 0.228048 0.336452 0.507306 8.118105e-01
2025-08-24 0.068397 0.099838 0.147893 0.230045 0.374397 0.633492 1.176450e+00
2025-08-31 0.056668 0.087361 0.137729 0.231522 0.414792 0.789755 1.723456e+00
2025-09-07 0.048042 0.077865 0.130148 0.235804 0.465121 1.002180 2.617798e+00
2025-09-14 0.041198 0.069870 0.123278 0.239861 0.520172 1.273461 4.056030e+00
2025-09-21 0.034804 0.061314 0.113309 0.234682 0.554599 1.532491 5.969280e+00
2025-09-28 0.027658 0.049940 0.095140 0.205471 0.515102 1.551708 7.038135e+00
2025-10-05 0.024554 0.045888 0.091270 0.209392 0.572944 1.971485 1.148614e+01
2025-10-12 0.022372 0.043280 0.089952 0.219788 0.660811 2.642750 2.097622e+01
2025-10-19 0.020267 0.040421 0.087391 0.226223 0.743592 3.454074 3.852478e+01
2025-10-26 0.018259 0.037515 0.084333 0.231413 0.834687 4.569478 7.739270e+01
2025-11-02 0.016147 0.033980 0.078859 0.227137 0.887079 5.631014 1.458708e+02
2025-11-09 0.014109 0.030262 0.072051 0.215905 0.901241 6.511874 2.562888e+02
2025-11-16 0.012874 0.028285 0.069578 0.219458 1.000758 8.662799 6.702717e+02
2025-11-23 0.011777 0.026458 0.067104 0.222251 1.105374 11.544425 2.105253e+03
2025-11-30 0.010881 0.024991 0.065354 0.227502 1.239288 15.953506 1.004564e+04
2025-12-07 0.010081 0.023637 0.063632 0.232373 1.385290 22.243366 9.344557e+04
2025-12-14 0.009187 0.021879 0.060215 0.228178 1.461057 28.253161 1.726390e+06
2025-12-21 0.007947 0.018987 0.052497 0.200483 1.303416 26.257870 3.900487e+06
2025-12-28 0.007448 0.018112 0.051357 0.204751 1.450154 37.122498 NaN
2026-01-04 0.007099 0.017610 0.051386 0.215270 1.687632 58.722567 NaN